tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2541979398191373640.post8961250618563439630..comments2023-10-17T03:34:04.053-06:00Comments on Wizards of Oz: REVIEW: Taleb's "Black Swan"deichmanshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13358324721299617982noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2541979398191373640.post-85783566294770368202008-04-14T21:25:00.000-06:002008-04-14T21:25:00.000-06:00Good decision analysis is, in part, measurement er...Good decision analysis is, in part, measurement error propagation analysis.Robert D. Brown IIIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2541979398191373640.post-69211301786739574122008-04-14T12:36:00.000-06:002008-04-14T12:36:00.000-06:00ARH: Thanks - anchors aweigh indeed! :-)Robert: Yo...ARH: Thanks - anchors aweigh indeed! :-)<BR/><BR/>Robert: Your comment is much appreciated, especially with the added commentary on your own original post. I wholeheartedly agree with your remarks on "uncertainty" -- as a physics undergrad we had "error analysis" hammered into our heads by our professors. To this day I still think of my "error bars" and "plus or minus" in my assessments (with frequent looks of befuddlement from my colleagues).deichmanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13358324721299617982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2541979398191373640.post-73163409200831752392008-04-11T21:51:00.000-06:002008-04-11T21:51:00.000-06:00I wrote the review of The Black Swan posted at Che...I wrote the review of The Black Swan posted at Chet Richard's blog. I sincerely appreciate your perspective on the book here as well. But then, as now, I do believe The Black Swan is a valuable one, not so much for the discussion on power law scale invariance (that I fully recognize goes to the extent of hyperbole), but because of the extensive discussion of confirmation bias. <BR/><BR/>Failure to consider uncertainty explicitly or appropriately is another malpractice I frequently observe. If people do go so far as to consider the effects of uncertainty, they are often too narrow in their assessments or rely on symmetric characterizations or assumptions from which they then default back to dealing with averages as proxies for uncertainties. As Taleb correctly points out, this is similar to assuming that one can walk safely across a river that averages four feet in depth.<BR/><BR/>In my work as a decision analyst, I am a frequent witness of the folly of "epistemic arrogance". Regardless the several weaknesses found in Taleb's book, I think his remonstrances against these shortcomings made it worth the time reading for his intended audience. But in retrospect, I should have dealt with some of the weaknesses in the book, too.<BR/><BR/>Let me also point out that Taleb does not throw out the Gaussian distribution entirely. He explicitly states that the Gaussian has a number of appropriate applications. His point (and I admit that it gets screechy at times), though, is that it is not always the best type of distribution to use when considering uncertainty. One just cannot assume Normality (both the mathematical variety and the more garden variety of assuming that tomorrow will be like yesterday). But I did not get the message that power law distributions should be normative. His message seemed more clearly to me that one should learn to use discernment for their proper application.<BR/><BR/>By the way, I absolutely agree with you that increasing complexity more likely exerts a dampening effect on shocks rather than exposing fragility. The literature on brain trauma ought to be a great example of that. People can frequently experience damage to one locus of the brain, only to have it's function replaced by some other area. I can't imagine anything much more complex than the human brain.<BR/><BR/>And finally, I agree that the allusion to the butterfly effect has become, in many cases, over worked to the degree of being silly. Whenever someone brings it up, I usually resort to a question similar to yours.Robert D. Brown IIIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17101199395342080657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2541979398191373640.post-7966644680702435882008-04-10T13:41:00.000-06:002008-04-10T13:41:00.000-06:00I don't think you are at all off the mark here. An...I don't think you are at all off the mark here. Anchors aweigh!<BR/><BR/>The greatest thing a book like this does for you is to make you think. That's why I found the Black Swan so valuable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com